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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Evans (21-P.Peterson).

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 5, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP