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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 31

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to ARI 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.83 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model