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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Arizona Cardinals 38

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 77-C.Benenoch reported in as eligible. 22-D.Martin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model