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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 35

Arizona Cardinals 38 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 12-J.Brown (21-J.Evans).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.55 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model