Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(5:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to ARI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 33-K.Williams ran ob at ARI 18 for 9 yards (58-C.Littleton).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.26 EP
53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model