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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2017-10-22 · 13:00 Twickenham Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

ARI
60.1%
LA
39.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • Jared Goff (LA): -0.131 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • ARI crossing 7 time zone(s)
  • ARI defense: -0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22
–
LA 19
Projected margin: ARI by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

ARI

Andre Ellington RB Questionable Quadricep
Karlos Dansby LB Questionable Hamstring
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Calf
Olsen Pierre DT Questionable Ankle
Xavier Williams DT Questionable Knee

LA

Cody Davis S Doubtful Thigh
Mark Barron LB Questionable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 0
–
LA 33

Prediction missed by 36 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:18 FG LA (4:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 0 – LA 3
  • Q2 11:20 FG LA (11:20) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 0 – LA 6
  • Q2 05:35 TD LA (5:35) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LA 12
  • Q2 00:47 TD LA (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LA 19
  • Q2 00:03 FG LA (:03) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 0 – LA 23
  • Q3 10:57 FG LA (10:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 0 – LA 26
  • Q4 03:53 TD LA (3:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LA 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 94%

    (10:08) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (4:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (2:15) (Punt formation) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LA 4, Center-49-J.Drescher. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at LA 24 for 20 yards (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:51) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to ARI 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (15:00) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to LA 35, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI-36-B.Baker.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (11:20) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to ARI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 33-K.Williams ran ob at ARI 18 for 9 yards (58-C.Littleton).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:39) (No Huddle) 5-D.Stanton up the middle to ARI 38 for 4 yards (24-B.Countess).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:16) 2-A.Lee punts 38 yards to LA 20, Center-49-J.Drescher. 10-P.Cooper to LA 24 for 4 yards (57-J.Bynes; 10-B.Golden). Penalty on LA-41-M.Christian, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on LA-34-M.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 22.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 17 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 61%

    (:03) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%

    (10:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (9:05) (Punt formation) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LA 17, Center-49-J.Drescher. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at LA 32 for 15 yards (58-S.Wright). PENALTY on LA-86-D.Carrier, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 25.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 25%

    (2:39) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass incomplete deep right to 33-K.Williams. Penalty on ARI-68-J.Veldheer, Offensive Holding, declined.