4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(3:39) (No Huddle) 5-D.Stanton up the middle to ARI 38 for 4 yards (24-B.Countess).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.71 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model