Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 2-A.Lee punts 38 yards to LA 20, Center-49-J.Drescher. 10-P.Cooper to LA 24 for 4 yards (57-J.Bynes; 10-B.Golden). Penalty on LA-41-M.Christian, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on LA-34-M.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.32 EP
61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 58, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model