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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 5

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 5, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP