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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to LA 35, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI-36-B.Baker.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.47 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model