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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 76

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to NE 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-D.Amendola to NE 26 for -1 yards (14-J.Hardy).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.10 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP