Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- NE offense: +0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- NE defense: +0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- QB edge to ATL: Tom Brady (NE) +0.237 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.303 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
ATL
NE
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 12:36 TD NE (12:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-B.Cooks for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – NE 6
- Q2 04:46 FG NE (4:46) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. ATL 0 – NE 10
- Q2 00:26 TD NE (:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – NE 16
- Q3 04:14 FG NE (4:14) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. ATL 0 – NE 20
- Q4 09:20 FG NE (9:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. ATL 0 – NE 23
- Q4 04:13 TD ATL (4:13) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-Ju.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – NE 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 55%
(11:04) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 65%
(9:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to NE 37, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on NE-23-P.Chung, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 37.
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Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(7:24) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to ATL 29, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 34%
(3:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end ran ob at NE 39 for 9 yards.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 10 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%
(1:11) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (55-C.Marsh), Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bademosi at NE 26. 29-J.Bademosi to NE 26 for no gain (63-B.Garland).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 76Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 55%
(11:28) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to NE 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-D.Amendola to NE 26 for -1 yards (14-J.Hardy).
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Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%
(4:46) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 36%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 12-M.Sanu.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%
(10:39) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(4:14) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(14:36) 18-T.Gabriel right end to NE 6 for -5 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
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Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 90%
(9:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.