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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 10

New England Patriots 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 10, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model