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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 20

New England Patriots 20 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.96 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model