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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to NE 37, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on NE-23-P.Chung, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 37.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP