Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 72

New England Patriots 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(7:24) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to ATL 29, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.22 EP
61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model