Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 7 at the 48
Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(3:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end ran ob at NE 39 for 9 yards.
The Three Options
GO
-0.53 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
- 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.96 EP
KICK
-1.43 EP
- 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
- 66% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT
-0.60 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
