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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (55-C.Marsh), Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bademosi at NE 26. 29-J.Bademosi to NE 26 for no gain (63-B.Garland).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.22 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model