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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 91

Dallas Cowboys 20 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to SF 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.43 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.81 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 48, worth -2.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model