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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2017-10-22 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

DAL
55.7%
SF
44.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DAL on 7 more days rest than SF
  • C.J. Beathard (SF): +0.168 EPA/dropback in prior starts (SF starting C.J. Beathard in place of Brian Hoyer)
  • DAL defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • C.J. Beathard (SF) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

DAL 23
–
SF 21
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

DAL

Chidobe Awuzie CB Out Hamstring
Justin Durant LB Questionable Groin

SF

Kyle Juszczyk RB Out Back
Aaron Lynch DE Out Calf
Ray-Ray Armstrong LB Questionable Shoulder
Brock Coyle LB Questionable Shoulder
Reuben Foster LB Questionable Ankle
Dekoda Watson LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 40
–
SF 10

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:46 TD DAL (12:46) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – SF 0
  • Q1 07:57 TD DAL (7:57) 21-E.Elliott right guard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – SF 0
  • Q1 04:33 FG SF (4:33) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. DAL 14 – SF 3
  • Q2 10:33 TD DAL (10:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 82-J.Witten for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in EndZone, YAC-0yds DAL 20 – SF 3
  • Q3 11:12 TD DAL (11:12) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at DAL24, YAC-76yds DAL 26 – SF 3
  • Q3 00:46 TD DAL (:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-56-R.Foster was injured during the play. DAL 33 – SF 3
  • Q4 10:54 TD DAL (10:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-D.Bryant for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in EndZone, YAC-0yds DAL 39 – SF 3
  • Q4 06:19 TD SF (6:19) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 40 – SF 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:15) 6-C.Jones punts 56 yards to SF 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 81-T.Taylor to SF 24 for 10 yards (35-K.Frazier). FUMBLES (35-K.Frazier), RECOVERED by DAL-25-X.Woods at SF 26. 25-X.Woods to SF 20 for 6 yards (36-D.Johnson). SF-36-D.Johnson was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Two (2) yards of loose ball yardage.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:34) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to DAL 26, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds. Deflected by #85 N.Brown.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 84%

    (4:33) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 34%

    (2:25) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to SF 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to DAL 12, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-R.Switzer pushed ob at DAL 25 for 13 yards (35-E.Reid). PENALTY on DAL-30-A.Brown, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DAL 12.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:23) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to SF 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 77%

    (11:16) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Bourne.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 14 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:34) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to DAL 20, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 7-C.Rush pass incomplete short left to 45-R.Smith.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete short left to 28-C.Hyde (97-T.Charlton).