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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 28

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(11:16) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Bourne.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.56 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model