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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 76

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Dallas Cowboys 40

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete short left to 28-C.Hyde (97-T.Charlton).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.04 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model