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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.04 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model