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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 8-D.Kaser punts 44 yards to DEN 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-H.Sharp to DEN 35 for 13 yards (34-D.Watt, 48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.49 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model