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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
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LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2017-10-22 · 16:25 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

DEN
35.5%
LAC
64.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.176 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20
–
LAC 24
Projected margin: LAC by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

DEN

Cody Latimer WR Out Knee
Paxton Lynch QB Out right Shoulder
Isaiah McKenzie WR Out Ankle
Corey Nelson LB Out Elbow
Emmanuel Sanders WR Out Ankle
Donald Stephenson T Out Calf
Menelik Watson T Out Calf

LAC

Keenan Allen WR Questionable Shoulder
Joe Barksdale T Questionable Foot
Corey Liuget DT Questionable Back
Adrian Phillips S Questionable Neck
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 0
–
LAC 21

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:44 TD LAC (7:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – LAC 6
  • Q2 07:10 TD LAC (7:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – LAC 13
  • Q4 05:51 TD LAC (5:51) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 12-T.Benjamin for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – LAC 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (10:54) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to DEN 1 for no gain (51-T.Davis, 34-W.Parks). PENALTY on DEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 0 yards, enforced at DEN 1.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 36, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:09) 8-D.Kaser punts 60 yards to DEN 8, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-H.Sharp to DEN 19 for 11 yards (49-J.Onwualu, 48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 37 for 20 yards (9-R.Dixon).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 13 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:11) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to LAC 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 14 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:06) 8-D.Kaser punts 44 yards to DEN 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-H.Sharp to DEN 35 for 13 yards (34-D.Watt, 48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to LAC 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:55) 8-D.Kaser punts 64 yards to DEN 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-H.Sharp to DEN 37 for 16 yards (43-M.Davis).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to LAC 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:09) 8-D.Kaser punts 69 yards to DEN 1, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-30-A.Ekeler.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (9:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to LAC 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 52%

    (6:55) 8-D.Kaser punts 31 yards to DEN 9, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 15-H.Sharp.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to LAC 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 43 for 3 yards.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:56) 8-D.Kaser punts 35 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds. PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 74%

    (12:49) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass deep left intended for 88-D.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Hayward [25-R.Jenkins] at LAC 10. 26-C.Hayward to LAC 8 for -2 yards (83-A.Derby).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 19 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:07) 8-D.Kaser punts 54 yards to DEN 26, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-H.Sharp to DEN 35 for 9 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).