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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 40

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 8-D.Kaser punts 31 yards to DEN 9, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 15-H.Sharp.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.70 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model