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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 55

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 8-D.Kaser punts 35 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds. PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.00 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model