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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 31

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:49) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass deep left intended for 88-D.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Hayward [25-R.Jenkins] at LAC 10. 26-C.Hayward to LAC 8 for -2 yards (83-A.Derby).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model