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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to DEN 1 for no gain (51-T.Davis, 34-W.Parks). PENALTY on DEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 0 yards, enforced at DEN 1.

The Three Options

GO +4.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 1, worth +0.89 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model