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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 81

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.37 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.36 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model