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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model