Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- IND offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- JAX defense: -0.222 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- IND defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to IND: Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.097 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.123 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
JAX
IND
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:33 TD JAX (9:33) (Run formation) 64-C.Reed reported in as eligible. 33-C.Ivory up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – IND 0
- Q1 05:07 TD JAX (5:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 89-M.Lewis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – IND 0
- Q2 07:43 FG JAX (7:43) 4-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 17 – IND 0
- Q2 02:00 FG JAX (2:00) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 20 – IND 0
- Q3 06:10 TD JAX (6:10) (Pass formation) 24-T.Yeldon up the middle for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 26 – IND 0
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(7:02) 2-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.
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Q2 IND 4th & 16 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 36%
(14:21) 2-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 87%
(7:43) 4-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
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Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 74Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 57%
(5:55) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens. PENALTY on JAX-22-A.Colvin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 29.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%
(2:00) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
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Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:19) 2-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.
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Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(14:11) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.
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Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(1:47) (Run formation) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to JAX 6 for no gain (95-A.Jones).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 86Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 64%
(15:00) 3-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to IND 25, Center-43-M.Overton. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at IND 25 for no gain.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EPp(convert) 71%
(11:49) 3-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to IND 15, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.
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Q4 IND 4th & 14 at the 38Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 23% p(FG) 61%
(6:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-J.Doyle to JAX 33 for 5 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 24 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 87%
(2:09) (Run formation) 40-T.Bohanon up the middle to IND 24 for no gain (95-J.Hankins).
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Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 34 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.39 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 70%
(:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 11-Q.Bray to JAX 31 for 3 yards (21-A.Bouye).