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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 3-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to IND 15, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.03 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 20, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP