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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 38

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

What Actually Happened

(6:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-J.Doyle to JAX 33 for 5 yards (20-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.26 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP