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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.62 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model