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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Thursday 2017-10-19 · 20:25 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

KC
64.7%
OAK
35.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.219 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Alex Smith (KC): +0.169 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • KC defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 26
–
OAK 21
Projected margin: KC by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

KC

Charcandrick West RB Out Concussion
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Out Knee
Mitch Morse C Out Foot
Albert Wilson WR Questionable Knee

OAK

Gareon Conley CB Out Shin
Marshall Newhouse T Out Foot
Cory James LB Questionable Knee
Marquel Lee LB Questionable Ankle
Nicholas Morrow LB Questionable Ankle
Jamize Olawale RB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 30
–
OAK 31

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:19 FG KC (10:19) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – OAK 0
  • Q1 08:19 TD LV (8:19) Flea Flicker from #24 Lynch to #4 Carr. 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 89-A.Cooper for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. KC 3 – OAK 6
  • Q1 04:23 TD KC (4:23) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – OAK 7
  • Q1 00:49 TD LV (:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-A.Cooper for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 10 – OAK 13
  • Q2 08:59 TD KC (8:59) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – OAK 14
  • Q2 01:09 FG KC (1:09) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 20 – OAK 14
  • Q3 10:53 TD LV (10:53) (Shotgun) 33-D.Washington left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – OAK 20
  • Q3 07:17 TD KC (7:17) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 12-A.Wilson for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – OAK 21
  • Q3 00:51 FG KC (:51) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 30 – OAK 21
  • Q4 11:56 FG LV (11:56) 2-G.Tavecchio 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. KC 30 – OAK 24
  • Q4 00:00 TD LV (:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. KC 30 – OAK 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 67%

    (10:19) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to LV 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 40%

    (10:31) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to KC 1, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-84-C.Patterson.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 16 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 67%

    (4:56) 2-G.Tavecchio 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (21-E.Murray), Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 90%

    (1:09) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (:02) 2-G.Tavecchio 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:18) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to KC 13, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill to KC 26 for 13 yards (7-M.King).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (:51) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (11:56) 2-G.Tavecchio 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 42%

    (5:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 29 yards to LV 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-49-J.Olawale, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at LV 16.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:26) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to KC 34, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill to KC 34 for no gain (84-C.Patterson; 56-X.Woodson-Luster).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 15 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:38) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 30-J.Richard to LV 15 for no gain (51-F.Zombo).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 50%

    (:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-J.Cook to KC 29 for 13 yards (21-E.Murray).