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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 35

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.11 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model