Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

(5:18) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to KC 13, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill to KC 26 for 13 yards (7-M.King).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.82 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model