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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 8

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 2-G.Tavecchio 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.22 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 8, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model