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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 29 yards to LV 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-49-J.Olawale, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at LV 16.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP