Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 85

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

(4:26) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to KC 34, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill to KC 34 for no gain (84-C.Patterson; 56-X.Woodson-Luster).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.36 EP
47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 85, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model