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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to LV 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model