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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 49

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(13:14) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 33 yards to NYJ 16, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 17. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 21 for 4 yards (45-M.Hull).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.18 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth +0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model