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New York Jets

3-4 HC Todd Bowles
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

4-2 HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2017-10-22 · 13:00 ET Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 💨 Windy Spread 3.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

NYJ
44.8%
MIA
55.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYJ: Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.124 vs Josh McCown (NYJ) -0.051 EPA/dropback
  • Wind 18 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 20 13–27
–
MIA 21 14–28
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

NYJ

Jordan Leggett TE Out Knee
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Shoulder

MIA

DeVante Parker WR Doubtful Ankle
Andre Branch DE Questionable Knee
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Ankle
Byron Maxwell CB Questionable Foot
Mike Pouncey C Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 28
–
MIA 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:01 TD NYJ (13:01) 15-J.McCown pass deep right to 10-J.Kearse for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 10:50 TD MIA (10:50) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 14-J.Landry for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – MIA 6
  • Q1 01:34 TD NYJ (1:34) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep middle to 11-R.Anderson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – MIA 7
  • Q2 06:22 TD MIA (6:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 80-A.Fasano for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 14 – MIA 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD NYJ (2:00) 15-J.McCown up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 20 – MIA 14
  • Q3 01:52 TD NYJ (1:52) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short middle to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 27 – MIA 14
  • Q4 11:33 TD MIA (11:33) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 10-K.Stills for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [23-T.Brooks]. NYJ 28 – MIA 20
  • Q4 06:25 TD MIA (6:25) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short middle to 10-K.Stills for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 28 – MIA 27
  • Q4 00:26 FG MIA (:26) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. NYJ 28 – MIA 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:21) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 20%

    (13:14) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 33 yards to NYJ 16, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 17. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 21 for 4 yards (45-M.Hull).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:38) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant ran ob at MIA 30 for 4 yards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 31%

    (3:00) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to MIA 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-32-J.Burris.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 16 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (:39) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 57 yards to NYJ 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley ran ob at NYJ 22 for 11 yards (78-T.Fede).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:59) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NYJ 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 9 yards (78-T.Fede).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:11) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to MIA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:54) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to NYJ 17, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:05) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to MIA 47, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to NYJ 42 for 11 yards (45-R.Miles).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:53) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to MIA 44, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to MIA 46 for 2 yards (51-J.Stanford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:15) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to MIA 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-J.Landry to MIA 25 for 16 yards (45-R.Miles).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 19 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 18%

    (:58) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 35 yards to NYJ 15, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-92-J.Denney.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 86%

    (:26) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →