Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 75

New York Jets 14 – Miami Dolphins 7

(11:38) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant ran ob at MIA 30 for 4 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.95 EP
59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model