Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Jets 21

(10:59) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NYJ 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 9 yards (78-T.Fede).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.87 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model