Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 54

New York Jets 21 – Miami Dolphins 14

(8:11) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to MIA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.74 EP
59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -2.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model