Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Jets 28

(14:54) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to NYJ 17, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.56 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model