Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 85

New York Jets 28 – Miami Dolphins 21

(9:53) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to MIA 44, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to MIA 46 for 2 yards (51-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 85, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model