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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 69

New York Jets 28 – Miami Dolphins 28

What Actually Happened

(4:15) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to MIA 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-J.Landry to MIA 25 for 16 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.06 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model